The Cumulative Effect of Informed Decisions

In the era of abundant, free information, success often appears to be a mysterious formula or, worse, a single lucky break. But the reality is much simpler, though less glamorous: success is not the result of one decision, but a series of carefully considered choices that accumulate over time, much like building blocks toward your goals. This observation raises an important question: why do so many people believe success can happen in an instant?

The Myth of "One Decision Away"

One of the most common misconceptions about success is that it stems from a single, defining moment. Whether it’s a startup landing a massive deal or an individual getting a big promotion, these milestones are celebrated as though they happened in isolation. Yet, what appears to be one decision—such as Facebook’s fabled pivot toward developing a social networking giant—often builds on years of prior decisions, iterations, and learning. This belief in the "one lucky decision" can be limiting because it ignores the scaffolding of smaller, less visible choices that create a foundation for success.

Success as a Series of Steps

Success, whether in building a company, crafting a career, or pursuing a passion, is about compounding decisions. Much like saving money in a bank account accrues interest, good decisions act as investments. For example, when Apple introduced the iPod, it was hailed as a stroke of genius—but that product's success stood on decisions Apple had been making for nearly a decade, from recruiting design talent to honing their supply-chain operations.

This incremental framework challenges the myth of instant gratification. Take YC Combiner startups—many people see the exponential growth of companies like Airbnb and Stripe as the result of a sudden "aha!" moment. In truth, these successes emerged from countless deliberate iterations of their ideas, grounded in earlier, often unglamorous decisions, like responding to customer feedback or testing business models.

Real-World Mental Models

Paul Graham’s idea of "staying upwind" applies perfectly here. Just as you should aim to make decisions that keep your future options open (such as learning fundamental skills that can adapt to a changing market), successful people and companies make decisions that maximize compounding benefits over time.

Another model to consider is Jeff Bezos’s "regret minimization framework," where he imagines himself looking back at his life from age 80 to evaluate whether his choices align with his future goals. Bezos’s decision to quit his Wall Street career to start Amazon wasn’t a single gamble—it was one of many calculated decisions informed by his long-term vision.

Practical Insights: Embracing the Staircase Over the Elevator

So how can one internalize this lesson and build a path toward sustainable success?

Start Small, Act Now: The sooner you make decisions—even small ones—the more you learn. This builds both momentum and a clearer understanding of where your decisions lead. Just like early-stage founders experimenting with ideas learn what works and what doesn’t, your choices today will sharpen your instincts for the future.

Iterate Relentlessly: Don’t be afraid of course corrections. Decision-making is not about perfection; it’s about constant improvement. Startups like Instagram began as entirely different apps; they became what they are today through refinement.

Align with Curiosity and Ambition: To do great work—as Paul Graham notes—you need an “ambitious curiosity” about what you’re doing. This alignment lets you push through the inevitable setbacks and make decisions that align with your interests.

Make Uncertainty-Proof Choices: Opt for choices like learning generalized skills (e.g., programming or writing) that keep your future opportunities open. These are “upwind” decisions, allowing you more flexibility to navigate the unknown.

Demystifying Success

Recognizing success as a series of incremental decisions gives you clarity and control. You no longer need to chase a singular "big break" but can instead focus on consistently making better decisions today. Whether you're deciding which projects to tackle, what skills to learn, or even which people to spend time with, every good decision compounds like an investment. Over time, these builds become the foundation of success—one block at a time.